The $33 billion bill is already the wrong number
The ledger does not lie, even when the government tries to
The Reason report tells us the Pentagon auditors have priced the Iran War at $33 billion. The Congressional Budget Office, doing the harder work, says the inflationary consequences will be felt well into 2027. Both numbers are real. Both numbers are also incomplete. The true cost of a war includes not merely the appropriations drawn and the contracts let, but the distortion imposed on every price in the economy — the hidden tax on the baker, the manufacturer, the saver — for years after the last shot.
I built American public finance on one foundational principle: that the cost of government must be stated honestly, funded visibly, and paid in full. A government that borrows to wage war without telling the public what it is borrowing, at what rate, and against what future revenue, is not governing — it is evading. Every dollar of undisclosed war cost is a draft drawn on the next generation without their knowledge or consent. I called that a breach of public faith when debts from the Revolution were handled carelessly; I call it the same today.
Inflation is not an abstraction. It is a tax — the most cowardly tax a government can impose, because it requires no vote, names no rate, and falls hardest on those with the least ability to hedge against it. When the CBO says inflationary consequences persist into 2027, it is saying that ordinary Americans will continue paying for this war through degraded purchasing power long after the political class has moved on to the next crisis. That is precisely the scenario I sought to prevent when I argued for transparent, funded debt over vague, depreciating paper.
The remedy is not to refuse to fund the national defense — I was never a pacifist, and I would never counsel a republic to leave itself naked before its enemies. The remedy is to fund it honestly. Lay the appropriations before Congress. Let the CBO score the full ten-year liability, not merely the forward deployment costs. Issue debt in the open market at stated terms, so that the price of the war is legible to every citizen and every bond buyer. A government willing to show its creditors what it owes earns lower interest rates. A government that hides the bill pays a premium — in perpetuity.
I will mark this as inference, since I cannot read the full CBO report from this desk: if the $33 billion figure excludes veterans' care, long-term base sustainment, and debt-service costs on borrowed war financing — as such figures historically do — then the real present-value liability is likely a substantial multiple of what the Pentagon auditors have published. Congress should demand the unabridged accounting. The public should insist upon it. A free people that does not know what its wars cost cannot make a free judgment about whether to wage them.
My recommendation is plain. The Treasury, in coordination with the CBO, should publish a unified war-cost statement — direct appropriations, projected debt service, and estimated inflationary drag — on a quarterly basis, available to any citizen with a browser. Sunlight is not merely good policy; it is the precondition of public credit. And public credit, I remind you, is the precondition of everything else.
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