The Strait and the Compact

NPR reports that Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz brought genuine suffering to global commerce during the months of conflict with the United States and Israel. A tentative deal is now in place, but as the report makes plain, the engines have not yet turned over. That gap — between a signed intention and a working reality — is precisely where the character of a nation's foreign policy is tested.

I have long counseled that the Republic should extend its commercial hand broadly and its military hand cautiously, and that it should form no permanent attachment to any foreign power's quarrels. That counsel was born of hard experience. Alliances made in passion are dissolved in recrimination; arrangements made in clear-eyed interest tend to hold. Whether this accord was made in interest or in the heat of a moment, I cannot say — I am told only that it is tentative, and that the central question of the waterway remains open.

The Strait of Hormuz, as I understand it from the reports given to me, is not merely a line on a chart. It is a chokepoint through which a commanding share of the world's energy moves. A power that holds it holds leverage over nations far removed from any direct quarrel. This is precisely the kind of entanglement — not of treaty but of geography and commerce — that demands the steadiest nerves and the most patient diplomacy. Saber-rattling is cheap. Durable arrangements are costly and slow.

I am told by NPR that President Trump signaled ships should "start your engines" — a posture of confidence, perhaps of triumph. That posture is not without its uses. A Republic that cannot project resolve invites encroachment. But resolve projected before the terms are settled is a promissory note the nation may be asked to honor at an inconvenient hour. Inference on my part: if the deal is tentative, the engines idling is the correct prudence, whatever the public declaration.

The deeper question is one of precedent and institutional habit. A foreign-policy posture built on the personality of a single administration — tilting sharply in one direction, then another — offers no stable foundation for the commerce and security that ordinary citizens depend upon. The Republic's word, like its credit, is slowly earned and quickly damaged. Whatever the outcome of this particular negotiation, the Congress and the citizenry should insist on knowing its terms, its obligations, and its duration. Secrecy in foreign compacts has always been the enemy of republican accountability.

My counsel is this: pursue the accord, press for its completion, and publish its terms for the scrutiny of the people's representatives. Celebrate no victory until the ships are moving and the agreement holds across a change of season — and of administration. A peace that depends on one man's handshake is not yet a peace the Republic can bank on.